Good decisions under pressure: priorities and thinking traps

Under time pressure and fear, the brain falls back on shortcuts. This saves time but leads to typical mistakes. One is called normalcy bias in psychology: you assume everything will turn out fine because it always has – and therefore underestimate a new, unfamiliar danger. Anyone who thinks “it won't be that bad” on hearing a flood warning is caught in this trap.

A second trap is clinging to effort already invested: “We've been climbing for three hours, we're not turning back now.” But that effort is already spent – you don't get it back, whatever you decide now. The only thing that should count is what is safest from now on.

The third trap is group pressure: you do what the others do, or leave the decision to the loudest person. In groups especially, people often don't dare to voice concerns so as not to look like a spoilsport. In this way a whole group can head together in a direction that nobody actually thinks is wise.

A simple order helps you avoid doing the wrong thing first in chaos: 1. avert immediate danger to life and call for help, 2. deal with injuries, 3. protection from cold, wet or heat, 4. water, 5. communication and signals, 6. food. Many people think of food first in emergencies – yet it usually only becomes important much later.

This list is a rule of thumb, not a rigid law. In a heatwave, water may come before weather protection; after an accident in the mountains, the emergency call may come before everything else. The order is a starting point to orient yourself by when your head is full.

When several options are on the table, say two or three of them aloud and think through the worst realistic outcome of each. Then choose the option whose worst case is most survivable. That is often not the most comfortable option, but the safest.

The most effective protection against thinking traps is to make important decisions early – in a calm hour before the trip or before the crisis. You set trigger and turnaround points: “At 2 pm we turn back, wherever we are.” “With a severe weather warning we don't set off.” “If evacuation is advised, we leave immediately.”

Under pressure you then no longer have to weigh things up, only check: has the limit been reached? That is much easier. Fixed turnaround times have long been common in mountaineering and outdoor training, precisely because people cling so strongly to a goal when it seems within reach.

Write such limits into the family emergency plan or the trip plan and tell everyone in the group. When everyone knows the rule, it is easier to stick to it – and nobody has to justify themselves for pointing to it.

In immediate danger to life there is nothing to weigh up: get to safety first, then call the emergency number (112 in the EU). All the thinking tools in this text are meant for the moments when there is time for them.

Official warnings and evacuation orders take priority over your own deliberations. Authorities often have information you don't – about rising water levels, fire spread or closed roads, for example. Anyone who hesitates often loses the safe opportunity to leave, because routes may later be blocked or flooded.

Rules of thumb do not guarantee the right decision. They only make good decisions more likely. That is why reviewing decisions at fixed intervals and with every new piece of information is part of it. Turning back or changing the plan is not failure but often the wisest thing you can do.

In a group, explicitly invite dissent: “Who has concerns? What speaks against it?” Some groups deliberately appoint one person to take the opposing view. This brings objections to the table that would otherwise stay unspoken out of politeness.

Practise the three check questions against thinking traps with everyday decisions: am I sticking to the plan only because I have already invested so much? Am I underestimating the situation because it is unfamiliar? Am I just following the others? If you know the questions from daily life, you remember them more easily in a crisis.

Survival manuals such as FM 3-05.70 stress that knowledge and equipment are of little use if fear drives your actions, and recommend first composing yourself and assessing the situation. A short stop with calm breathing out – as in the STOP rule – is often the best start to any good decision.